What churn rate should I model?
Use the monthly customer or revenue churn rate for the period you want to forecast. For annual planning, multiply monthly impact by 12 only after checking seasonality.
Free SaaS retention tool
Churn Impact Calculator
Model churned revenue, retained revenue, net retention, sensitivity scenarios, and the retention fixes most likely to protect MRR.
MRR
at risk
NRR
retained
0
logins
Revenue at risk
$810
$9,720 annualized
Ending MRR
$20,660
$2,660 net change
Net retention
97.0%
95.5% gross
current period
Impact summary
Churned customers11
Average revenue per account$75
Expansion revenue$270
Recovery MRR needed$0
Preventable vs target$360
fix first
Priority fixes
1
Tighten activation
Audit the first-session path, time-to-value, empty states, and lifecycle nudges for users who churn before forming a habit.
2
Reduce contraction
Review pricing, packaging, usage limits, upgrade triggers, downgrade reasons, and cancellation survey themes.
3
Protect high-value accounts
Add account health alerts, success check-ins, renewal reminders, and recovery playbooks for customers with outsized MRR.
4
Replace churn with pipeline
Size the acquisition gap and make sure new sales, winback, or expansion work can replace revenue lost this period.
churn x expansion
Sensitivity scenarios
Churn
Expansion
Ending MRR
Net MRR
2.5%
0.0%
$20,750
$2,750
2.5%
1.5%
$21,020
$3,020
2.5%
2.3%
$21,155
$3,155
4.5%
0.0%
$20,390
$2,390
4.5%
1.5%
$20,660
$2,660
4.5%
2.3%
$20,795
$2,795
5.6%
0.0%
$20,188
$2,188
5.6%
1.5%
$20,458
$2,458
5.6%
2.3%
$20,593
$2,593
Retention target
Reducing churn to 2.5% protects $360 MRR this period.
Recovery gap
Expansion and new MRR cover the modeled churn loss.
Retention quality
NRR is 97.0%, before counting new acquisition MRR.
What does revenue at risk mean?
Revenue at risk is the MRR expected to churn before expansion or new sales offset it. It is the fastest number to use when sizing retention work.
How should I prioritize churn fixes?
Start with the lever attached to the biggest leak: onboarding for early churn, activation for low usage, success reviews for high-value accounts, and pricing or packaging for contraction.
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MRR Calculator
Convert churn assumptions into projected MRR, ARR, trial conversion, expansion, and break-even signups.
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Pricing Page Grader
If churn is tied to buyer mismatch, score the pricing page before bringing more customers into the same offer.
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SaaS Launch Checklist
Turn the priority fixes into launch, onboarding, lifecycle email, analytics, billing, and support tasks.
Protect the revenue base.
Zero To Shipped gives you the SaaS starter kit and launch systems to improve onboarding, billing, analytics, and customer retention.